Champions League (Europe) · Thu, Sep 10 · 16:45 · PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Likeliest: Shakhtar Donetsk win · 43%
We make it 70% for both teams to score. The market says 60%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PSV Eindhoven34%64%−30
OursMarket
Draw23%20%+3
OursMarket
Shakhtar Donetsk43%16%+27
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 66% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 70% | 60% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 84% | −27 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 36% | +30 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 80% | −36 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PSV Eindhoven
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Sep 5 · at AFC Ajax (A)3-1
- Aug 30 · at FC Utrecht (A)6-1
- Aug 23 · v FC Groningen (H)5-1
- Aug 15 · at Excelsior (A)2-1
- Aug 8 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-2
Shakhtar Donetsk
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 5 · at Karpaty Lviv (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Polissya Zhytomyr (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · at Metalist 1925 (A)1-0
- Aug 9 · at FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (A)2-0
- Aug 3 · v Kudrivka (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | PSV Eindhoven | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.