Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Sep 13 · 18:00 · PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam
Likeliest: PSV Eindhoven win · 84%
A tight one: we make it 84% for the home win. The market says 80%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PSV Eindhoven84%80%+4
OursMarket
Draw9%12%−3
OursMarket
Sparta Rotterdam7%8%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 79% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 92% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 16% | 20% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 91% | 88% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 93% | 91% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PSV Eindhoven
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 10 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at AFC Ajax (A)3-1
- Aug 30 · at FC Utrecht (A)6-1
- Aug 23 · v FC Groningen (H)5-1
- Aug 15 · at Excelsior (A)2-1
Sparta Rotterdam
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 4 · v PEC Zwolle (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Excelsior (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · v FC Utrecht (H)3-3
- Aug 14 · at SC Telstar (A)3-1
- Aug 9 · v Feyenoord (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | PSV Eindhoven | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.