Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Mar 7 · 19:00 · PSV vs AZ
Likeliest: PSV win · 53%
A 26% away win. The market says 13%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PSV53%70%−17
OursMarket
Draw21%17%+4
OursMarket
AZ26%13%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 72% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 70% | 60% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 87% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 30% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 83% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 85% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PSV
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 3 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-3
- Feb 28 · at Heracles Almelo (A)3-1
- Feb 21 · v SC Heerenveen (H)3-1
- Feb 13 · at FC Volendam (A)1-2
- Feb 8 · at FC Groningen (A)2-1
AZ
LossWinWinLossWin
- Mar 4 · v Telstar (H)2-1
- Mar 1 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-2
- Feb 26 · v Noah (H)4-0
- Feb 22 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)3-1
- Feb 19 · at Noah (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | PSV | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.