Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 17 · 12:30 · PSV vs FC Twente
Likeliest: PSV win · 55%
A 55% home win. The market says 45%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PSV55%45%+10
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−2
OursMarket
FC Twente25%32%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 68% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 55% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 58% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PSV
WinWinWinDrawWin
- May 10 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)4-1
- May 2 · at Ajax (A)2-2
- Apr 23 · v PEC Zwolle (H)6-1
- Apr 11 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-0
- Apr 4 · v FC Utrecht (H)4-3
FC Twente
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- May 10 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-0
- May 3 · at AZ (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-1
- Apr 10 · v FC Volendam (H)2-1
- Apr 4 · at Ajax (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | PSV | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.