Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Apr 4 · 14:30 · PSV vs FC Utrecht
Likeliest: PSV win · 53%
A 25% away win. The market says 16%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PSV53%64%−11
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
FC Utrecht25%16%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 67% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 62% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 84% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 36% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 80% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PSV
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Mar 22 · at Telstar (A)1-3
- Mar 14 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)2-3
- Mar 7 · v AZ (H)2-1
- Mar 3 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-3
- Feb 28 · at Heracles Almelo (A)3-1
FC Utrecht
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Mar 22 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-0
- Mar 15 · at FC Twente (A)2-0
- Mar 6 · at Heracles Almelo (A)0-0
- Mar 1 · v AZ (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · v PEC Zwolle (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | PSV | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.