Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Feb 1 · 13:30 · PSV vs Feyenoord
Likeliest: PSV win · 62%
We make it 36% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 31%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PSV62%57%+5
OursMarket
Draw18%22%−4
OursMarket
Feyenoord20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 69% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 43% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 78% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PSV
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Jan 28 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-2
- Jan 24 · v NAC Breda (H)2-2
- Jan 21 · at Newcastle United (A)0-3
- Jan 17 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-1
- Jan 14 · at FC Den Bosch (A)4-1
Feyenoord
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Jan 29 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- Jan 25 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-2
- Jan 22 · v Sturm Graz (H)3-0
- Jan 18 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)3-4
- Jan 11 · at SC Heerenveen (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | PSV | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.