Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Dec 13 · 19:00 · PSV vs Heracles Almelo
Likeliest: PSV win · 71%
We make it 38% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 20%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PSV71%85%−15
OursMarket
Draw17%9%+8
OursMarket
Heracles Almelo13%6%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 80% | −18 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 94% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 15% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 91% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 94% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PSV
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Dec 9 · v Atlético Madrid (H)2-3
- Dec 6 · at SC Heerenveen (A)2-0
- Nov 30 · v FC Volendam (H)3-0
- Nov 26 · at Liverpool (A)4-1
- Nov 22 · at NAC Breda (A)1-0
Heracles Almelo
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Dec 6 · v Telstar (H)1-1
- Nov 29 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)1-1
- Nov 22 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)4-2
- Nov 8 · at Excelsior (A)2-1
- Nov 2 · v PEC Zwolle (H)8-2
| Last 10 games | PSV | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.