Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Jan 24 · 19:00 · PSV vs NAC Breda
Likeliest: PSV win · 64%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 53%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PSV64%72%−9
OursMarket
Draw20%17%+4
OursMarket
NAC Breda16%11%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 53% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 89% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 28% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 83% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 87% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PSV
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Jan 21 · at Newcastle United (A)0-3
- Jan 17 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-1
- Jan 14 · at FC Den Bosch (A)4-1
- Jan 10 · v Excelsior (H)5-1
- Dec 21 · at FC Utrecht (A)2-1
NAC Breda
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Jan 17 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)3-4
- Jan 10 · at FC Groningen (A)0-0
- Dec 20 · v Telstar (H)0-1
- Dec 14 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-1
- Dec 7 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | PSV | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.