Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Mar 14 · 17:45 · PSV vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: PSV win · 59%
We make it 33% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 27%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PSV59%65%−6
OursMarket
Draw20%19%+2
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen21%16%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 73% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 84% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 35% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 81% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 80% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PSV
LossWinWinLossWin
- Mar 7 · v AZ (H)2-1
- Mar 3 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-3
- Feb 28 · at Heracles Almelo (A)3-1
- Feb 21 · v SC Heerenveen (H)3-1
- Feb 13 · at FC Volendam (A)1-2
NEC Nijmegen
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Mar 8 · v FC Volendam (H)3-0
- Mar 3 · v PSV (H)3-2
- Feb 28 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-3
- Feb 21 · at Ajax (A)1-1
- Feb 17 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | PSV | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.