Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Thu, Apr 23 · 19:00 · PSV vs PEC Zwolle
Likeliest: PSV win · 67%
We make it 73% for both teams to score. The market says 60%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PSV67%79%−12
OursMarket
Draw16%12%+4
OursMarket
PEC Zwolle17%9%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 79% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 73% | 60% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 91% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 21% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 88% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 90% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PSV
WinLossLossWinWin
- Apr 11 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-0
- Apr 4 · v FC Utrecht (H)4-3
- Mar 22 · at Telstar (A)1-3
- Mar 14 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)2-3
- Mar 7 · v AZ (H)2-1
PEC Zwolle
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Apr 12 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
- Apr 5 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-5
- Mar 21 · v NAC Breda (H)2-1
- Mar 13 · v FC Groningen (H)1-1
- Mar 8 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | PSV | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.