KNVB Beker (Netherlands) · Wed, Feb 4 · 20:00 · PSV vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: PSV win · 65%
We make it 66% for both teams to score. The market says 61%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PSV65%67%−1
OursMarket
Draw17%19%−1
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen17%15%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 68% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 61% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 85% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 33% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 82% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PSV
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Feb 1 · v Feyenoord (H)3-0
- Jan 28 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-2
- Jan 24 · v NAC Breda (H)2-2
- Jan 21 · at Newcastle United (A)0-3
- Jan 17 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-1
SC Heerenveen
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Feb 1 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-1
- Jan 18 · v FC Groningen (H)0-2
- Jan 15 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)3-1
- Jan 11 · v Feyenoord (H)2-2
- Dec 20 · at Heracles Almelo (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | PSV | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.