Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Feb 21 · 17:45 · PSV vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: PSV win · 66%
We make it 36% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 26%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PSV66%75%−8
OursMarket
Draw18%15%+3
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen16%10%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 74% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 60% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 90% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 25% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 85% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 88% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PSV
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Feb 13 · at FC Volendam (A)1-2
- Feb 8 · at FC Groningen (A)2-1
- Feb 4 · v SC Heerenveen (H)4-1
- Feb 1 · v Feyenoord (H)3-0
- Jan 28 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-2
SC Heerenveen
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Feb 15 · v PEC Zwolle (H)4-2
- Feb 11 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)3-1
- Feb 7 · at FC Twente (A)0-5
- Feb 4 · at PSV (A)1-4
- Feb 1 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | PSV | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.