Liga MX (Mexico) · Sun, Sep 27 · 18:00 · Pumas UNAM vs Atlético San Luis
Likeliest: Pumas UNAM win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pumas UNAM48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Atlético San Luis26%26%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pumas UNAM
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 19 · at Atlas FC (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · at CD Guadalajara (A)0-3
- Sep 11 · v Club León (H)3-1
- Aug 29 · at Club Tijuana (A)0-2
- Aug 24 · v Club Necaxa (H)1-1
Atlético San Luis
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Club Necaxa (H)3-1
- Sep 15 · at Club León (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v CD Guadalajara (H)0-3
- Aug 31 · at CF Monterrey (A)3-1
- Aug 23 · v CF Pachuca (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Pumas UNAM | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.