Liga MX (Mexico) · Mon, Oct 12 · 01:00 · Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul
Likeliest: Cruz Azul win · 48%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pumas UNAM25%28%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Cruz Azul48%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 38% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pumas UNAM
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Sep 27 · v Atlético San Luis (H)2-3
- Sep 19 · at Atlas FC (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · at CD Guadalajara (A)0-3
- Sep 11 · v Club León (H)3-1
- Aug 29 · at Club Tijuana (A)0-2
Cruz Azul
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 26 · v CD Toluca (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at CF Monterrey (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Club América (H)4-3
- Sep 6 · v Santos Laguna (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Club Necaxa (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Pumas UNAM | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.