Liga MX (Mexico) · Sun, Oct 25 · 03:00 · Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL
Likeliest: Tigres UANL win · 42%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pumas UNAM29%31%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%27%+2
OursMarket
Tigres UANL42%42%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pumas UNAM
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Atlante FC (A)2-1
- Oct 12 · v Cruz Azul (H)3-3
- Sep 27 · v Atlético San Luis (H)2-3
- Sep 19 · at Atlas FC (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · at CD Guadalajara (A)0-3
Tigres UANL
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at CD Guadalajara (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · v CD Toluca (H)3-2
- Sep 27 · v Club Puebla (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at FC Juárez (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · at CF Monterrey (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Pumas UNAM | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 0-5-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.