NB I (Hungary) · Sun, Oct 25 · 14:30 · Puskás Akadémia vs Nyiregyháza Spartacus
Likeliest: Puskás Akadémia win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Puskás Akadémia52%50%+2
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Nyiregyháza Spartacus24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Puskás Akadémia
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Újpest (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · at ETO FC Győr (A)1-0
- Sep 18 · v Budapest Honvéd FC (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · at Mezőörs KSE (A)8-1
- Sep 6 · at Zalaegerszegi TE (A)0-1
Nyiregyháza Spartacus
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Budapest Honvéd FC (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · at Zalaegerszegi TE (A)1-5
- Sep 20 · v Ferencváros TC (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Majosi SE (A)8-1
- Sep 4 · at Vasas (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Puskás Akadémia | Nyiregyháza Spartacus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.