Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 27 · 16:00 · Qarabağ vs FC Twente
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 41%
We make it 58% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Qarabağ37%32%+6
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
FC Twente41%44%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | −16 |
| Both teams score | 73% | 60% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 68% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 42% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Qarabağ
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Aug 20 · at FC Twente (A)1-0
- Aug 13 · v Dynamo Kyiv (H)2-0
- Aug 6 · at Dynamo Kyiv (A)0-1
- Jul 30 · at CSKA Sofia (A)0-0
- Jul 23 · v CSKA Sofia (H)0-0
FC Twente
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Aug 20 · v Qarabağ (H)0-1
- Aug 16 · v PEC Zwolle (H)3-1
- Aug 13 · at DAC 1904 (A)3-3
- Aug 9 · at SC Heerenveen (A)0-1
- Aug 6 · v DAC 1904 (H)6-0
| Last 10 games | Qarabağ | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.