Super League (China) · Fri, Oct 9 · 11:35 · Qingdao Hainiu vs Beijing Guoan
Likeliest: Beijing Guoan win · 66%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 65% for both teams to score. The market says 61%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Qingdao Hainiu14%18%−4
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Beijing Guoan66%62%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 61% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 34% | 38% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 82% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 18% | 22% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Qingdao Hainiu
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 5 · at Dalian Yingbo FC (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Wuhan Three Towns (H)1-5
- Aug 23 · at Shanghai Port (A)1-2
- Aug 14 · at Shandong Taishan (A)1-3
- Aug 8 · v Shanghai Shenhua (H)0-1
Beijing Guoan
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Sep 15 · v Pohang Steelers (H)3-1
- Sep 5 · at Shanghai Port (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · at Dalian Yingbo FC (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Yunnan Yukun (H)3-3
- Aug 18 · at Shanghai Shenhua (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Qingdao Hainiu | Beijing Guoan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-1-9 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-6-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.