Super League (China) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:35 · Qingdao Hainiu vs Liaoning Tieren FC
Likeliest: Liaoning Tieren FC win · 52%
Likely score: 1–2
A 52% away win. The market says 47%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Qingdao Hainiu24%28%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Liaoning Tieren FC52%47%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 53% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 37% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Qingdao Hainiu
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 9 · v Beijing Guoan (H)0-3
- Sep 5 · at Dalian Yingbo FC (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Wuhan Three Towns (H)1-5
- Aug 23 · at Shanghai Port (A)1-2
- Aug 14 · at Shandong Taishan (A)1-3
Liaoning Tieren FC
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v Wuhan Three Towns (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Yunnan Yukun (A)0-5
- Aug 29 · at Chengdu Rongcheng (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (H)4-4
| Last 10 games | Qingdao Hainiu | Liaoning Tieren FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-0-10 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.