Super League (China) · Sun, Oct 11 · 10:00 · Qingdao West Coast vs Dalian Yingbo FC
Likeliest: Dalian Yingbo FC win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Qingdao West Coast33%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Dalian Yingbo FC36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Qingdao West Coast
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Sep 5 · at Wuhan Three Towns (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Shandong Taishan (H)2-0
- Aug 14 · v Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (H)0-0
- Aug 9 · at Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (A)0-0
Dalian Yingbo FC
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 5 · v Qingdao Hainiu (H)2-1
- Aug 28 · v Beijing Guoan (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (A)1-0
- Aug 19 · at Shanghai Port (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Yunnan Yukun (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Qingdao West Coast | Dalian Yingbo FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-6-0 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.