Super League (China) · Sat, Oct 24 · 07:30 · Qingdao West Coast vs Yunnan Yukun
Likeliest: Qingdao West Coast win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Qingdao West Coast41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Yunnan Yukun32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Qingdao West Coast
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Beijing Guoan (A)0-1
- Oct 11 · v Dalian Yingbo FC (H)0-4
- Sep 5 · at Wuhan Three Towns (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Shandong Taishan (H)2-0
Yunnan Yukun
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Shanghai Shenhua (A)1-7
- Sep 6 · v Liaoning Tieren FC (H)5-0
- Aug 29 · at Zhejiang (A)0-6
- Aug 22 · at Beijing Guoan (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | Qingdao West Coast | Yunnan Yukun |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.