Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 3 · 19:45 · Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley
Likeliest: Queens Park Rangers win · 39%
Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Queens Park Rangers39%42%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+3
OursMarket
Burnley33%32%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 57% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Queens Park Rangers
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 31 · at Southampton (A)1-4
- Oct 24 · v Swansea City (H)5-0
- Oct 17 · at Birmingham City (A)0-3
- Oct 14 · v Derby County (H)4-1
- Oct 9 · at West Ham United (A)1-1
Burnley
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 31 · v Portsmouth (H)0-0
- Oct 24 · at Lincoln City (A)1-4
- Oct 16 · v Wolverhampton (H)1-2
- Oct 13 · v Charlton Athletic (H)2-2
- Oct 10 · at Watford (A)4-0
| Last 10 games | Queens Park Rangers | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.