Championship (England) · Wed, Sep 2 · 18:45 · Queens Park Rangers vs Cardiff City
Likeliest: Queens Park Rangers win · 41%
We make it 65% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Queens Park Rangers41%49%−9
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−2
OursMarket
Cardiff City36%26%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 53% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 54% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 74% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 51% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 66% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Queens Park Rangers
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Aug 29 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)0-0
- Aug 15 · at Portsmouth (A)3-1
- Aug 8 · v Millwall (H)1-1
- May 2 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-3
Cardiff City
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Aug 29 · v Sheffield United (H)2-2
- Aug 25 · v Norwich City (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Derby County (A)2-2
- Aug 17 · v Wrexham (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · v Swindon Town (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Queens Park Rangers | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.