Championship (England) · Sat, Apr 25 · 14:00 · Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County
Likeliest: Queens Park Rangers win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 32%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Queens Park Rangers40%32%+8
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Derby County35%41%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 53% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 59% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 68% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 43% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Queens Park Rangers
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Apr 21 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
- Apr 18 · at Millwall (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Bristol City (H)0-0
- Apr 6 · at Preston North End (A)1-1
- Apr 3 · v Watford (H)2-1
Derby County
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 21 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
- Apr 18 · v Oxford United (H)1-0
- Apr 11 · at Southampton (A)1-2
- Apr 6 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
- Apr 3 · at Coventry City (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Queens Park Rangers | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Queens Park Rangers form·Derby County form·Head-to-head record