Championship (England) · Wed, Oct 14 · 18:45 · Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County
Likeliest: Queens Park Rangers win · 53%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Queens Park Rangers53%53%0
OursMarket
Draw26%26%+1
OursMarket
Derby County21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 53% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Queens Park Rangers
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 9 · at West Ham United (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Preston North End (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Middlesbrough (H)0-1
Derby County
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · v Wrexham (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Burnley (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Birmingham City (H)1-2
- Sep 9 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at West Ham United (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Queens Park Rangers | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Queens Park Rangers form·Derby County form·Head-to-head record