Championship (England) · Sun, Mar 8 · 16:30 · Queens Park Rangers vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Queens Park Rangers win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 26%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Queens Park Rangers41%26%+15
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Middlesbrough34%47%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 50% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 53% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 53% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 74% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 36% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Queens Park Rangers
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Feb 28 · v Sheffield United (H)0-2
- Feb 24 · at Southampton (A)0-5
- Feb 21 · at Hull City (A)3-1
- Feb 14 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-3
- Feb 6 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-0
Middlesbrough
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Mar 2 · at Birmingham City (A)3-1
- Feb 24 · v Leicester City (H)1-1
- Feb 21 · v Oxford United (H)0-0
- Feb 16 · at Coventry City (A)1-3
- Feb 9 · at Sheffield United (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Queens Park Rangers | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Queens Park Rangers form·Middlesbrough form·Head-to-head record