Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:00 · Queens Park Rangers vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 43%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Queens Park Rangers34%30%+4
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Middlesbrough43%43%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 53% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 70% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 41% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Queens Park Rangers
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 2 · v Cardiff City (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)0-0
- Aug 15 · at Portsmouth (A)3-1
- Aug 8 · v Millwall (H)1-1
Middlesbrough
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 2 · at Burnley (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-1
- Aug 25 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)3-1
- Aug 22 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-2
- Aug 15 · v Lincoln City (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Queens Park Rangers | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Queens Park Rangers form·Middlesbrough form·Head-to-head record