EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 13:00 · Queens Park Rangers vs Millwall
Likeliest: Millwall win · 43%
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 53%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Queens Park Rangers32%31%0
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−2
OursMarket
Millwall43%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 53% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 43% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Queens Park Rangers
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- May 2 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-3
- Apr 25 · v Derby County (H)2-3
- Apr 21 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
- Apr 18 · at Millwall (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Bristol City (H)0-0
Millwall
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- May 11 · v Hull City (H)0-2
- May 8 · at Hull City (A)0-0
- May 2 · v Oxford United (H)2-0
- Apr 24 · at Leicester City (A)1-1
- Apr 21 · at Stoke City (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Queens Park Rangers | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 6-4-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.