Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 21 · 15:00 · Queens Park Rangers vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Queens Park Rangers win · 43%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Queens Park Rangers43%40%+4
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−5
OursMarket
Portsmouth31%30%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 41% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 49% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 60% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 57% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Queens Park Rangers
LossLossLossLossWin
- Mar 14 · at Leicester City (A)3-1
- Mar 11 · at Birmingham City (A)0-1
- Mar 8 · v Middlesbrough (H)0-4
- Feb 28 · v Sheffield United (H)0-2
- Feb 24 · at Southampton (A)0-5
Portsmouth
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Mar 16 · v Derby County (H)0-1
- Mar 10 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
- Mar 7 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-1
- Feb 28 · v Hull City (H)0-1
- Feb 24 · at Wrexham (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Queens Park Rangers | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Queens Park Rangers form·Portsmouth form·Head-to-head record