Championship (England) · Tue, Apr 21 · 18:45 · Queens Park Rangers vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Queens Park Rangers win · 47%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Queens Park Rangers47%42%+5
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−4
OursMarket
Swansea City29%30%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 58% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 58% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Queens Park Rangers
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 18 · at Millwall (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Bristol City (H)0-0
- Apr 6 · at Preston North End (A)1-1
- Apr 3 · v Watford (H)2-1
- Mar 21 · v Portsmouth (H)6-1
Swansea City
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- Apr 18 · v Southampton (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Leicester City (A)1-0
- Apr 6 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-2
- Apr 3 · at Sheffield United (A)3-3
- Mar 21 · v Coventry City (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Queens Park Rangers | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Queens Park Rangers form·Swansea City form·Head-to-head record