Liga MX (Mexico) · Sat, Oct 10 · 23:00 · Querétaro FC vs Atlante FC
Likeliest: Querétaro FC win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Querétaro FC45%47%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Atlante FC28%26%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 65% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Querétaro FC
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 26 · at CD Guadalajara (A)2-0
- Sep 21 · v Club León (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Club Tijuana (A)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Atlas FC (A)3-1
- Aug 22 · v CD Toluca (H)1-2
Atlante FC
DrawDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 26 · v CF Monterrey (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Club Puebla (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v CF Pachuca (H)0-3
- Sep 6 · at Atlas FC (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Club León (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Querétaro FC | Atlante FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.