Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 10 · 20:00 · Quilmes Atlético Club vs Agropecuario Argentino
Likeliest: Quilmes Atlético Club win · 54%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Quilmes Atlético Club54%57%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%27%+3
OursMarket
Agropecuario Argentino17%16%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 42% | 39% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 84% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 43% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Quilmes Atlético Club
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 3 · at Tristán Suárez (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · v Güemes (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors (A)0-3
- Sep 12 · v San Martín de San Juan (H)1-0
- Sep 7 · at Nueva Chicago (A)0-1
Agropecuario Argentino
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 3 · v Ferrocarril Midland (H)0-0
- Sep 27 · at Atlanta (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · at San Martín de Tucumán (A)0-3
- Sep 6 · v Atlético de Rafaela (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Quilmes Atlético Club | Agropecuario Argentino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-2 | 0-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.