Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Oct 13 · 18:00 · Quilmes Reserve vs Newell's Old Boys Reserve
Likeliest: Quilmes Reserve win · 40%
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Quilmes Reserve40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+2
OursMarket
Newell's Old Boys Reserve29%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 44% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Quilmes Reserve
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 6 · at Defensa y Justicia Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 30 · v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 23 · at Aldosivi Reserve (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · at Huracán Reserve (A)0-1
- Sep 8 · v Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve (H)2-1
Newell's Old Boys Reserve
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 6 · v Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 30 · at Central Cordoba Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 24 · v Rosario Central Reserve (H)3-0
- Sep 17 · v San Martin Reserve (H)4-0
- Sep 10 · at Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Quilmes Reserve | Newell's Old Boys Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 1-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.