Copa Argentina (Argentina) · Wed, Aug 19 · 22:15 · Racing Club vs Belgrano
Likeliest: Racing Club win · 36%
We make it 47% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Racing Club36%32%+3
OursMarket
Draw31%32%−1
OursMarket
Belgrano33%36%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 35% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 36% | 42% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 68% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 48% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Racing Club
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Aug 14 · v Banfield (H)0-1
- Aug 9 · at Argentinos Juniors (A)1-2
- Aug 1 · v Tigre (H)1-3
- Jul 29 · at Rosario Central (A)0-0
- Jul 24 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima (H)2-1
Belgrano
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Aug 15 · v Independiente Rivadavia (H)2-0
- Aug 10 · at Banfield (A)2-0
- Aug 6 · at Tigre (A)0-0
- Aug 1 · v Argentinos Juniors (H)0-1
- Jul 23 · v Rosario Central (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Racing Club | Belgrano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.