Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 11 · 22:15 · Racing Club vs Belgrano
Likeliest: Racing Club win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 52% for both teams to score. The market says 47%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Racing Club38%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw33%31%+3
OursMarket
Belgrano29%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 39% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Racing Club
LossLossWinLossWin
- Oct 5 · at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (A)2-1
- Sep 27 · v Boca Juniors (H)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Sarmiento (H)3-1
- Sep 14 · at Huracán (A)1-2
- Sep 7 · v Atlético Tucumán (H)1-2
Belgrano
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 4 · at Talleres (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Sarmiento (A)1-1
- Sep 4 · v Huracán (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Atlético Tucumán (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Racing Club | Belgrano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.