Copa Argentina (Argentina) · Sun, Sep 27 · 20:00 · Racing Club vs Boca Juniors
Likeliest: Boca Juniors win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Racing Club23%25%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%30%+1
OursMarket
Boca Juniors46%45%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 40% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 46% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 70% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 36% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Racing Club
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Sarmiento (H)3-1
- Sep 14 · at Huracán (A)1-2
- Sep 7 · v Atlético Tucumán (H)1-2
- Aug 31 · at Independiente Rivadavia (A)1-3
- Aug 24 · v Boca Juniors (H)1-1
Boca Juniors
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 20 · at San Lorenzo (A)2-0
- Sep 16 · at São Paulo (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Central Córdoba (H)3-1
- Sep 9 · v São Paulo (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Racing Club | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-6-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.