Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 18 · 17:45 · Racing Club vs CA Independiente
Likeliest: Racing Club win · 44%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Racing Club44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
CA Independiente24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 65% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Racing Club
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 11 · v Belgrano (H)0-2
- Oct 5 · at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (A)2-1
- Sep 27 · v Boca Juniors (H)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Sarmiento (H)3-1
- Sep 14 · at Huracán (A)1-2
CA Independiente
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 12 · at Talleres (A)0-0
- Oct 2 · v Instituto De Córdoba (H)1-4
- Sep 19 · at Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v San Lorenzo (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Central Córdoba (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Racing Club | CA Independiente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.