Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sat, Oct 17 · 16:00 · Racing de Montevideo vs Montevideo Wanderers
Likeliest: Racing de Montevideo win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Racing de Montevideo47%48%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Montevideo Wanderers23%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 46% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Racing de Montevideo
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at Juventud de Las Piedras (A)0-2
- Oct 4 · v Peñarol (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Progreso (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Liverpool UY (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Boston River (H)3-2
Montevideo Wanderers
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v Boston River (H)1-3
- Oct 4 · at Cerro (A)2-0
- Sep 28 · v Albion FC (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Danubio (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Nacional (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Racing de Montevideo | Montevideo Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.