Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sun, Oct 4 · 22:30 · Racing de Montevideo vs Peñarol
Likeliest: Peñarol win · 42%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Racing de Montevideo25%27%−3
OursMarket
Draw34%30%+4
OursMarket
Peñarol42%43%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 40% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 70% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Racing de Montevideo
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 26 · at Progreso (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Liverpool UY (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Boston River (H)3-2
- Sep 6 · at Cerro (A)0-1
- Aug 31 · v Albion FC (H)1-0
Peñarol
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 30 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Boston River (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Cerro (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Albion FC (H)3-1
- Sep 5 · at Danubio (A)4-0
| Last 10 games | Racing de Montevideo | Peñarol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.