La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 · Racing de Santander vs Deportivo Alavés
Likeliest: Racing de Santander win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Racing de Santander38%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
Deportivo Alavés34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Racing de Santander
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 5 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)2-3
- Aug 28 · v Elche (H)3-2
- Aug 23 · at Getafe (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · v Villarreal (H)2-2
- May 31 · v Cádiz (H)4-1
Deportivo Alavés
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 6 · v Osasuna (H)5-2
- Aug 28 · v Villarreal (H)1-0
- Aug 20 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Getafe (H)3-0
- May 23 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Racing de Santander | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.