La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Aug 28 · 17:00 · Racing de Santander vs Elche
Likeliest: Racing de Santander win · 50%
We make it 55% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Racing de Santander50%44%+6
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Elche27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 54% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 56% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 61% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Racing de Santander
DrawWinDrawLoss
- Aug 23 · at Getafe (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · v Villarreal (H)2-2
- May 31 · v Cádiz (H)4-1
- May 24 · at Málaga (A)1-1
Elche
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 23 · v Barcelona (H)0-5
- Aug 17 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-1
- May 23 · at Girona (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- May 12 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Racing de Santander | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 50% |
| Both teams scored | — | 70% |
| Clean sheets | — | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.