La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:15 · Racing de Santander vs Espanyol
Likeliest: Racing de Santander win · 37%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Racing de Santander37%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Espanyol36%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Racing de Santander
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at Osasuna (A)0-1
- Oct 11 · v Valencia (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Celta Vigo (A)0-5
- Sep 16 · at Barcelona (A)2-7
- Sep 12 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)2-1
Espanyol
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Atletico Madrid (H)0-1
- Oct 9 · at Málaga (A)1-1
- Sep 18 · v Elche (H)1-3
- Sep 15 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Osasuna (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Racing de Santander | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.