La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Oct 11 · 19:00 · Racing de Santander vs Valencia
Likeliest: Racing de Santander win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Racing de Santander43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Valencia30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Racing de Santander
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 19 · at Celta Vigo (A)0-5
- Sep 16 · at Barcelona (A)2-7
- Sep 12 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)2-3
- Aug 28 · v Elche (H)3-2
Valencia
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 20 · v Real Sociedad (H)2-3
- Sep 15 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · at Sevilla (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Barcelona (H)0-5
- Aug 30 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Racing de Santander | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.