La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Aug 16 · 15:00 · Racing de Santander vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Racing de Santander win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 30%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Racing de Santander48%30%+18
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
Villarreal31%43%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 58% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 57% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 70% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 41% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Racing de Santander
DrawWin
- May 31 · v Cádiz (H)4-1
- May 24 · at Málaga (A)1-1
Villarreal
DrawLossLossWinWin
- May 24 · v Atletico Madrid (H)5-1
- May 24 · v Atlético Madrid (H)5-1
- May 17 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-2
- May 13 · v Sevilla (H)2-3
- May 10 · at Mallorca (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Racing de Santander | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 60% |
| Both teams scored | — | 80% |
| Clean sheets | — | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.