NWSL (USA) · Fri, Sep 25 · 22:30 · Racing Louisville vs San Diego Wave FC
Likeliest: San Diego Wave FC win · 59%
A tight one: we make it 59% for the away win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Racing Louisville17%21%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
San Diego Wave FC59%56%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 41% | 44% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 79% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 23% | 28% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Racing Louisville
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 20 · at Bay FC (A)0-2
- Sep 11 · v NJ/NY Gotham FC (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Angel City FC (H)0-2
- Aug 29 · at San Diego Wave FC (A)2-3
- Aug 23 · at Chicago Stars FC (A)2-3
San Diego Wave FC
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 19 · v Kansas City Current (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · v North Carolina Courage (H)2-1
- Sep 7 · at Seattle Reign FC (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Racing Louisville (H)3-2
- Aug 22 · v Utah Royals FC (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | Racing Louisville | San Diego Wave FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-4 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.