NWSL (USA) · Sat, Oct 3 · 20:00 · Racing Louisville vs Utah Royals FC
Likeliest: Utah Royals FC win · 49%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Racing Louisville26%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Utah Royals FC49%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Racing Louisville
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 25 · v San Diego Wave FC (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Bay FC (A)0-2
- Sep 11 · v NJ/NY Gotham FC (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Angel City FC (H)0-2
- Aug 29 · at San Diego Wave FC (A)2-3
Utah Royals FC
WinLossWinLossWin
- Sep 27 · v North Carolina Courage (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Angel City FC (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · at Houston Dash (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Boston Legacy FC (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at Orlando Pride (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Racing Louisville | Utah Royals FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-4 | 3-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.