Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Thu, Oct 22 · 18:00 · Racing Reserve vs San Lorenzo Reserve
Likeliest: Racing Reserve win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Racing Reserve49%——
OursMarket
Draw24%——
OursMarket
San Lorenzo Reserve27%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Racing Reserve
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 15 · at Vélez Sarsfield Reserve (A)0-4
- Oct 6 · v River Plate Reserve (H)2-2
- Sep 30 · at Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves (A)2-2
- Sep 24 · v CA Independiente Reserve (H)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Sarmiento Reserve (A)1-0
San Lorenzo Reserve
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 15 · v Sarmiento Reserve (H)1-1
- Oct 7 · at Argentinos Juniors Reserve (A)1-0
- Sep 29 · v Aldosivi Reserve (H)3-2
- Sep 22 · v Huracán Reserve (H)0-2
- Sep 16 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Racing Reserve | San Lorenzo Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-3 | 1-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.