La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, May 16 · 16:30 · Racing Santander vs Real Valladolid
Likeliest: Racing Santander win · 63%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Racing Santander63%64%−1
OursMarket
Draw20%20%−1
OursMarket
Real Valladolid18%16%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 56% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 84% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 36% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 80% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Racing Santander
WinWinDrawWinWin
- May 10 · at Leganés (A)2-1
- May 3 · v Huesca (H)4-2
- Apr 26 · at Ceuta (A)0-0
- Apr 17 · at Real Sociedad II (A)3-1
- Apr 12 · v Almería (H)5-1
Real Valladolid
DrawLossWinLossWin
- May 9 · v Real Zaragoza (H)2-0
- May 3 · at Las Palmas (A)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Real Sociedad II (H)1-0
- Apr 19 · at FC Andorra (A)0-1
- Apr 13 · v SD Eibar (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Racing Santander | Real Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.