Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Mon, Oct 12 · 16:00 · Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin
Likeliest: Radomiak Radom win · 36%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Radomiak Radom36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Motor Lublin35%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Radomiak Radom
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 20 · at Lech Poznań (A)1-5
- Sep 14 · v Piast Gliwice (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · at Widzew Łódź (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Cracovia (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · v Zagłębie Lubin (H)0-0
Motor Lublin
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 19 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)0-0
- Sep 11 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Legia Warszawa (H)2-3
- Aug 29 · v Piast Gliwice (H)0-2
- Aug 22 · at MKS Korona Kielce (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Radomiak Radom | Motor Lublin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.