Championship (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Raith Rovers vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle
Likeliest: Raith Rovers win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 54% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Raith Rovers38%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+1
OursMarket
Inverness Caledonian Thistle32%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Raith Rovers
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Stenhousemuir (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Queen's Park FC (H)2-0
- Oct 3 · at Greenock Morton (A)2-1
- Sep 25 · v Livingston (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Partick Thistle (A)0-0
Inverness Caledonian Thistle
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Arbroath (H)0-0
- Oct 13 · at Queen's Park FC (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Stenhousemuir (H)2-0
- Sep 25 · v Greenock Morton (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Livingston (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Raith Rovers | Inverness Caledonian Thistle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.